An increase in future expected short-term interest rates lowers stock returns, suggesting that banks are highly exposed to interest rate risk. This comparison highlights that banks’ net interest margins have been falling at the same time as compensation for taking on duration risk has declined over the past three decades. The interest rate is reset every two weeks and applies to all outstanding seasonal credit loans. Historical Discount Rates. In contrast, a higher term premium is associated with rising stock prices, indicating that equity investors value an increase in the compensation for interest rate risk. The decline of the five-year term premium was even larger, falling from around 2% to less than –1%. For more information, please see the October 31, 2002 Federal Reserve Board press release. “Discount Rate” on Advances to Member Banks under Sections 13 and 13a of the Federal Reserve Act in Effect at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. March 01, 2013. The central bank’s policy statement Thursday was approved on a 10-0 vote. Considering these contradictory predictions, it remains unclear whether banks are, in fact, exposed to interest rate risk. The sign of the responses in these figures line up with the signs of the stock price responses to the two bond yield components shown in Figure 2; this provides further support for the view that the stock price responses reflect changes in expected future earnings. So, while banks engage in active risk management to offload interest rate risk to their borrowers and creditors, such a transfer of risk is not perfect. Source: Net interest margin computed by FRED, FRB St. Louis, based on Call Report data; term premium estimates based on Kim and Wright (2005). Given these features, bank profit margins may actually increase when the policy rate rises—contrary to the traditional view. This publication is edited by Anita Todd with the assistance of Karen Barnes. Think you have what it takes to run our country’s central bank? Research Library English, William B., Skander J. van den Heuvel, and Egon Zakrajšek. See Paul (2020, Figure 3.1) for details. In the 12th District, the Seattle Branch serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. Hence, when short-term interest rates rise, so does the interest income on such loans that banks issued in the past. 2.75. See Paul (2020, Figure 6.1.) Bernanke, Ben S., and Mark Gertler. See more information about the Discount Window. Nominal rates, de­ spite some fluctuations, trended Specifically, we analyze how banks’ stock prices respond to changes in interest rates on days of monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve. On January 9, 2003, Regulation A (Extensions of Credit by Reserve Banks) was amended to restructure Federal Reserve credit programs that resulted in a new method of establishing the discount rate. Bank profit margins have historically reflected the compensation for taking on interest rate risk, as measured by the term premium, and bank stock prices are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. Figure 1Banks’ net interest margin and 5-year term premium. Federal Reserve takes additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. When short-term interest rates increase, their cost of funding rises, squeezing banks’ profit margins and dragging down their stock valuations. Subscribe Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Historically, banks’ profit margins reflect their compensation for taking on interest rate risk and their stock prices are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. 80–97. Share. The Federal Reserve Board established a Century Date Change Special Liquidity Facility (SLF), a program for lending to depository institutions from October 1, 1999 through April 7, 2000. Rate. The two type of responses are large in absolute terms and statistically significant at standard confidence levels, but they have opposite signs. September 27. 1. Notes: Estimated responses to a 1 percentage point surprise increase in expected future short-term interest rates (Panel A) and term premium (Panel B) based on estimates from Kim and Wright (2005). What it means: The interest rate at which an eligible financial institution may borrow funds directly from a Federal Reserve bank. “An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 2005-33. Previously I worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Gray bars indicate NBER recession dates. Kim, Don H., and Jonathan H. Wright. FHLBank San Francisco Announces 2020 Director Election Results The Bank’s members elected Lori R. Gay to a nonmember public interest independent director position and re-elected F. Daniel Siciliano to a nonmember independent director position. Attn: Research publications, MS 1140 Current Discount Rates. 2018. The standard economic textbook gives a clear answer to this question: yes, very much so! No aspects of the methodology changed when publication moved to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The interest rate charged on seasonal credit loans is a floating market rate comprised of the average of the federal funds rate and the rate on three-month CDs rounded to the nearest five basis points. To start our assessment, we first consider whether bank profit margins have historically reflected compensation for taking on interest rate risk. Interest Rate & Fees. (% per annum) 2018. 2005. Inflation in Japan since that time has been persi… Please send editorial comments and requests for reprint permission to Last Update: June 29, 2006 Collateral. 2018. However, net interest margins increase when the term premium rises unexpectedly (Panel B). Remy Beauregard is a research associate in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Federal Reserve Board - FRB: The Federal Reserve Board is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. The surprise changes in interest rates reflect movements around the time of monetary policy announcements, the data we used earlier; however, we convert these surprise interest rate changes into a quarterly time series to match the frequency of reports on bank profit margins. At the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city. 2018. “Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk.” NBER Working Paper 24582. Notes: Estimated responses of the daily stock return of the KBW Bank Index to a 1 percentage point surprise increase in expected future short-term interest rates and the term premium based on estimates from Kim and Wright (2005). We use the model estimates by Kim and Wright (2005) again to distinguish between these two components and estimate the response of stock prices to each of them. In 2020, she serves as an alternate voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. John C. Williams, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speaks at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 2, 2016. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Opinions expressed in this newsletter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, nor of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams estimates were previously published on the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s website. Pascal Paul is an economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Interest Rate Risk and Bank Capital Standards by Jonathan A. Neuberger Banks frequently issue longer-term business loans and household mortgages with adjustable rates. Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who had dissented at … The Federal Reserve System (FRS) this week released the December edition of its Beige Book, based on data collected as of Nov. 20. Japan has struggled with very low inflation since the mid-1990s. Figure 1 gives a visual comparison of an estimated term premium (green line), based on the model by Kim and Wright (2005), and a measure of the net interest margin for U.S. commercial banks (blue line). Another distinction that we take into account is that longer-term government bond yields can either change because of variations in future expected short-term rates or due to a change in the term premium, the risk premium mentioned above. For example, when the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, the spread between it and bank deposit rates typically widens, such that the increase in banks’ interest expenses is less than the rise in the federal funds rate (see, for example, Drechsler, Savov, and Schnabl 2018). Figure 3Response of bank net interest margins to surprise interest rate changes. For example, the stock price of a bank with a larger maturity mismatch rises more with an increase in the term premium, which intuitively aligns with the business model of a bank that relies on maturity transformation. Sample: January 1994 to December 2007, excluding FOMC announcement on September 17, 2001. This is the rate by which banks can borrow money directly from the Fed [source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco]. 2020. 1995. In this Economic Letter, we summarize new evidence on this topic for the United States, building on recent research in Paul (2020). April 09, 2020 P.O. My research focuses on the interactions of financial markets with the macroeconomy and monetary policy. Drechsler, Itamar, Alexi Savov, and Philipp Schnabl. Economic theory states that a stock price reflects the present discounted value of a company’s future stream of dividends. These findings can help practitioners assess banks’ risk exposures and may have implications for unconventional monetary policy. “Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy.” FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2020-07. The Federal Reserve Bank expresses no opinion on the applicability of the basic discount rate or surcharge to any transaction governed by a Federal or state usury or usury preemption statute. Simon W. Zhu is a research associate in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. References. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. Its policy rate and related short-term interest rates have been close to zero for much of that time. The results are shown in Figure 2, with the green line indicating the reaction to a higher term premium at various bond maturities, while the blue line gives the response to an increase in expected future short-term interest rates. Banks whose reserves dip below the reserve requirement set by … However, quantitative easing could also improve bank profit margins through other channels, for example, by boosting asset prices. Pascal Paul is an economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Seasonal Lending Program. In reality, this longstanding view is not as clear as it might seem. That is because what matters for banks is not the level per se but the margin between different interest rates. One question to explore is whether, through the term premium channel, quantitative easing could inadvertently suppress bank profitability and, in turn, affect bank lending. Sample: January 1994 through December 2007, excluding FOMC announcement on September 17, 2001. 3.00. 2018. The results in Figure 3 show that banks’ net interest margins typically decrease following a surprise increase in the expected path of future short-term rates (Panel A). Opinions expressed in FRBSF Economic Letter do not necessarily reflect the views of the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Paul, Pascal. Permission to reprint must be obtained in writing. Other Agreements & Documents. District Primary Credit Rate Secondary Credit Rate Effective Date; Boston: 0.25%: 0.75%: 03-16-2020 The discount rate is another interest rate set by the Fed. The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced temporary actions aimed at increasing the availability of intraday credit extended by Federal Reserve Banks on both a collateralized and uncollateralized basis. Shaded areas denote 95% and 68% confidence bands. Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), Interest Rates and the Fed by Herbert Runyon, Brian Motley Regulation A of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In particular, we consider the responses of the stock return of a benchmark stock index for the banking sector, the KBW Bank Index. The shaded areas around the lines show that these responses are also statistically significant at the 95% confidence intervals. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and M… San Francisco, CA 94120, © 2020 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, “An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates.”, “Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy.”. Her comment came after James Bullard, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said on Monday that an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon." One way of measuring the compensation for interest rate risk is through the term premium. Long-Term Interest Rates. Over time, both declined steadily, with the net interest margin falling from around 5% at its peak to around 3% by 2015. Japan has also had an extensive experience with unconventional monetary policy, with limited apparent success (see Spiegel 2001). Moreover, the responses are also amplified for banks that engage more heavily in maturity transformation. “Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations.” Journal of Monetary Economics 98, pp. RSS Feed Each rate (also referred to as the “discount rate”) was in effect until the next date indicated. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is one of 12 reserve banks in the Federal Reserve System . Since the early 1990s, the two series have followed each other fairly closely, even though they could move around for a number of other reasons that are unrelated to interest rate risk. That is because banks’ liabilities typically have short maturities, while their assets are usually long-term, an institutional characteristic known as maturity transformation. Drechsler, Itamar, Alexi Savov, and Philipp Schnabl. Graph and download economic data for Federal Reserve Bank Discount Rates for Federal Reserve District 12: San Francisco (M13012USFRB12M156NNBR) from Nov 1914 to Nov 1944 about FRB SF District, San Francisco, banks, depository institutions, rate, and USA. 2. In addition, changes in just the level of interest rates, which also occurred over the sample period, cannot explain the fall in banks’ net interest margins, leaving aside considerations such as a lower bound on interest rates. December 20. Taken together, our results show that banks are not immune to interest rate risk. Hence, similar to banks, long-term bond investors get compensated for the risk of fluctuating short-term interest rates. FRBSF is one of the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks across the U.S. that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., serve as our nation's central bank. In addition, banks’ costs of funding are sluggish to adjust to short-term rate changes. The interest rate charged on loans from the SLF is 150 basis points higher than the Federal Open Market Committee’s intended federal funds rate. Are banks exposed to interest rate risk? for details. Guidelines. Nonetheless, recent research finds that banks cannot offload all of the interest rate risk they are naturally exposed to. The rate change on January 9, 2003, did not reflect a change in the stance of monetary policy. The discount rate covers very short-term loans, usually overnight and is higher than the funds rate, because the Fed encourages banks to borrow from each other first. The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday approved action by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, increasing the discount rate at the Bank from 6 percent to 6-1/4 percent, effective immediately. To this end, we run predictive regressions to estimate how much bank net interest margins respond to surprise changes in future expected short-term rates and the term premium immediately and over the following 10 quarters. Accordingly, banks are highly exposed to the risk of fluctuating short-term interest rates and, therefore, to unexpected changes in monetary policy. We test whether that is the case by assessing whether the differential stock price responses we have documented are also reflected in bank profit margins. Historical Discount Rates Primary and Secondary credit Seasonal credit Adjustment credit* *Please Note: The Adjustment credit program was discontinued on January 9, 2003. Mark M. Spiegel is a senior policy advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists appear to have soured on negative interest rates as a strategy after having previously written positively about them. See if you can achieve full employment and low inflation as Chair of the Fed. for details. Required Agreements. Simon W. Zhu is a research associate in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Given the importance of the term premium for bank profitability that we document here, an interesting avenue for future research is related to quantitative easing, which works in part through lowering the term premium. Mary C. Daly took office on October 1, 2018, as president and chief executive officer of the 12th District, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. See Paul (2020, Table 4.3.) The stock price responses suggest that equity investors expect bank profit margins to change in the future following an unexpected move in long-term bond yields. The public website of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The movements in interest rates can therefore be taken as “surprise” changes resulting from revisions in financial markets’ expectations about the future path of monetary policy. This is based on the assumption that changes in interest rates and stock prices on those days mainly reflect reactions to the announcement as opposed to some other news. References. short-term interest rates and real short-term rates. This is the price index targeted by the BOJ. Box 7702 During a speech in San Francisco, she says the effects from natural disasters could impact where the Fed views the all-important long-run "neutral" interest rate. The relevant profit margin for banks is the so-called net interest margin: the difference between banks’ interest income and interest expenses, relative to all interest-earning assets. © 2020 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, new method of establishing the discount rate. The following is a list of rates of interest on our advances to, and discounts for, member banks and other depository institutions under Sections 13 and 13a of the Federal Reserve Act. This reflects the expected premium that bond investors demand for holding a long-term government bond, as opposed to a series of short-term bonds, with potentially varying interest rates. While the full effects are unclear for now, understanding these distinct mechanisms is important for policymakers to assess the overall effects of quantitative easing. So when interest rates change, the reaction of a company’s stock price gives an indication of how the business is affected. In the report the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted that low interest rates helped bolster regional sales, which “met or exceeded expectations.” 2018. Another way to assess banks’ exposure to interest rate risk is through the response of their stock prices to changes in interest rates (see, for example, English, van den Heuvel, and Zakrajšek 2018). Figure 1 shows the monthly year-over-year changes since 1980 in the Japanese consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food. Agreements. Visit the Federal Reserve Discount Window for more information. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco In addition, Paul (2020) shows that banks are “special,” in the sense that their stock price responses are stronger than responses for nonbank company stocks. While banks seem to face inherent risk from short-term interest rate changes, in practice they structure their balance sheets to avoid exposure to such risk. Discount Rates. The Federal Reserve Act. Such loans that banks can borrow money directly from a Federal Reserve Bank of San.... Board press release borrow funds directly from the Fed implications for unconventional policy! 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