Even Chil… It’s actually a benefit to be able to say, look, we’ve got to follow by these rules, because it is going to take, I think, that sort of a page turn. It doesn’t help Macri that he really doubled down on the bilateral relationship with the United States, and now the United States is in a much different trade and investment policy stance than we were last year. And are there things we as a country could do to make it harder for people who are in business to be payors to these politicians? That could turn into an indictment in the supreme court. You’ve got us kind of doubling down on use of Section 201 safeguards, 301, super 301, and Section 232 national security interest unilateral trade tools, that haven’t been touched in some cases in decades. In Brazil, if Temer goes tomorrow, Lula will be the president. Q: My name is Ali (sp). But if there’s anything that we’ve learned through our own electoral process last year here in the United States, is that your macroeconomic indicators can be strong but if wages and employment are lagging, the political payment can still be pretty fierce. Q: Thank you. ), U.S. Supreme Court Assesses Corporate Complicity in Child Slavery, by David J. Scheffer It’s hard to recall anything comparable certainly in the western hemisphere in recent—in recent memory. And that—you know, the OAS has challenges in that regard. And so stepping away from green energy just frankly as an export promotion tool, to my mind, is going to be damaging. Is it—is it to just keep doing the same, or is to add a little more pressure directly from us? It’s—I don’t this is likely, but it’s not inconceivable that we could begin to see a coup. You know, this session doesn’t deal with the one case that would have reinforced your position, which is Mexico and the prospect that Lopez Obrador could be the next president of Mexico. There’s enormous polarization, and we’re already entered into an electoral cycle for the 2018 elections, which happens less than a year from now. So I think that’s going to be an issue, and it’s going to be a major test for Santos, if he’s able to bring those levels down. So I think, you know, what more forceful measures? Kellie, let’s turn to some at least relatively good news. We have the bank that deals with economic and social development. In South America, we observe two main trends. So the other two options are a court case, which is currently ongoing in the electoral court—the supreme electoral court. And I’m wondering overall, as people who are concerned with democracy and democratic governance, what this is going to mean for representation for political parties, for all sorts of things going forward. Obviously, the scandal completely cuts the legs out under—from under that strategy. How do you see this affecting relations with respect to environmental and economic issues in the hemisphere? But it’s an interesting time in Chile. And actually, when you look around Latin America, especially South America, what you see is a turn to stalemate. I think now, as Kellie said, the Venezuela issue is a real test to see what it can accomplish. Now, as if the country’s other pressing problems weren’t enough, the Constitutional Court’s failure to resolve a standoff at the heart of his dismissal has added a new item to Peru’s “to do” list: constitutional reform. And what kind of response do you anticipate from our neighbors? I mean, they did do a follow up meeting after the Vina meeting in Buenos Aires on the margins of the World Economic Forum. And now the eruption of I think a truly historic—not just in Brazilian terms but in world terms—corruption scandals, the number of people in the government, in the congress, in the business sector that have been—that are either being investigated or have been charged or in jail. They’ve been playing in South America, though this—you know, pushing this dialogue with Mercosur. Now, the—now, the extreme case that Venezuela could do—I mean, the OAS could do is to invoke the Democratic Charter, which was approved on September 11th, 2001, in Lima, Peru. So, Michael, let’s start with you. There’s the expectation that the former president, Sebastian Pinera of the right will be reelected. MercoPress, en Español. Again, here everybody has their own perspective on this. In that case, and I’ll finish here, today as we meet there’s a meeting at the Organization of American States, a consultation with all the foreign ministers in the hemisphere about the Venezuela crisis. The top U.S. court’s decision could have major consequences for chocolate companies and global supply chains. I think that’s what the region—that’s the way, at least, that I think is useful to understand the region. It’s not quite—well, let me—let me just frame the question. Thank you. I mean, let’s not—you know, I don’t think we should kid ourselves. Obviously, there’s a lot of the corruption investigations still going around that swirl around her and a number of her colleagues—former colleagues from the government. TAYLOR: That’s a great question. We’ve been saying it’s unsustainable for the last couple years, and it just—it keeps going. Political issues; Political corruption; Health; South America; Latin America and Caribbean; Ap News Alert; Lung disease; Diseases and conditions; Infectious diseases; Peru; Government and politics; Peruvian lawmakers vote to oust … TAYLOR: If I may jump—well, you can jump in too, but—(laughs)—. Maybe not formally, but the armed forces are the real—I think the real power at this point, in the government. That’s true in Peru. The COVID-19 pandemic brought travel around the world to an abrupt halt in 2020. But it’s a test in the sense that they’re—that you really have to get foreign ministers and presidents, and there is some suggestion of getting some sort of ad hoc coalition that comes out of this OAS meeting of a group of countries of Brazil, Mexico, of Argentina, of Peru, of Colombia, and others, really to exert much more pressure than we’ve seen so far. Venezuela has seen an unprecedented—even by Latin American standards—crisis in economic, political, humanitarian terms. So I’m wondering what the perception is, both among governments and among—if there’s any thought about the OAS among citizens and civil society. And how is that possibly going to change over these next years? WASHINGTON — Watching political unrest explode across South America this fall, officials at the State Department noticed an eerily similar pattern in … And so there is a question here what that’s going to do to the economy, and so there’s some pushback from the business community saying, you know, it’s one thing to investigate corruption, it’s another to completely destroy the economy. HOCK: Yeah, Argentina is a bit of a bright spot. You know, if you were—when Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998, people said, well, this is a—you know, a shift to the left in Latin America. Q: On Venezuela, I mean, if I might just push you a little bit. I want to—considering some of the things that have been said here, and following all the news that I do—and I speak to all the government people in South America all the time—how far we are for a return of the populist governments? So whereas the peace issue, there is a real partisan kind of incentive and motivation to push that for political reasons. You know, I think that the—right now there are so many balls in the air that it’s very hard to know what the most likely scenario is. Police brutality and racism. President Macri of Argentina was just here at the White House, met with President Trump, had a number of meetings around town. I mean, my bias a former trade guy is, you know, let’s start talking to Brazil about, you know, acceding to the Government Procurement Agreement. HOCK: No, I mean, obviously Brazil, you know, hosted, you know, the last Rio+20. And in the province of Buenos Aires, I think that she would be the winner absolutely if she tomorrow to election. And then the others will react to it and try to defend the peace agreement, defend the peace accord. How successful has he been in turning around the economy? And so I agree with the points, but I do think that there’s been some improvement in recent years. Discussions with political leaders, journalists, political scientists, and civil rights leaders reveal the complex political, and personal, machinations that animated southern politics in an era of vast change. December 7, 2020. So there’s a lot of uncertainty about the domestic politics. It should have been a long time ago. And the economic challenges will continue. Brazil, I’m not sure it’s a stalemate, but a deadmate, checkmate, something like that. But more and more you hear talk of convergence and acercamiento, you know, a closening of those two trade blocs. There’s enormous uncertainty. ... South Atlantic News Agency. © 2020, World Politics Review LLC. And that I think has led governments from, you know, Peru to Argentina, Mexico—Mexico’s a case that has—you know, as you know, it doesn’t have a great tradition of—you know, is very respectful of sort of sovereignty and non-intervention, but has taken—the foreign minister has taken a very forceful stand on Mexico. I think that Santos’ visit was in general a success. So I think there are—in that sense, the external support, while it’s not going to determine how this comes out within Venezuela, I think could be helpful, if there’s a unified and a very forceful position. But my concern is that—you know this better than I do—given the dynamics in Colombia, I mean, corruption is something that is—you know, is extended across the border in Colombia and elsewhere. And so there is a lot of uncertainty about if whoever that candidate may be—and I think we don’t know yet, it’s totally wide open—but if there’s a candidate that has that position, whether this thing is going to—is going to go forward and how that will play in Washington with different groups. I think there’s sort of a broad level concern. They’ve also been pushing it on the TPP side. In the next five years, South America will see more frequent changes in governments as a result of public dissatisfaction over economic mismanagement, widespread corruption, weak economic performance due to softer Chinese demand for commodities, and social stresses associated with new entrants to the middle class and the working poor. CFR breaks down 2020’s biggest news with graphics. “Test” meaning that there’s not this kind of very, which it has been in the past, kind of a moderate, you know, expression of concern about all of the emails that you’re getting about, you know, we worry about people, but that there’s a much higher level and much more forceful diplomatic pressure. And I think it’s important to remember that this is a—this is a corruption scandal that hasn’t only touched Brazil. But I think if that’s not successful, it’s going to be a major problem moving forward. I don’t think the options are great in Venezuela. You’ve been very patient. Again, I think that’s significant. The United States of America has always been historically marred by social, political or economic issues: ever since attaining Independence, the … So while some people who support the government have clearly—are disaffected and have left, there’s still—there’s still a base of support. HOCK: Well, I think, looking for silver linings, that one of the silver linings on this topic is that south-south trade discussions are in the spotlight. December 8, 2020, by Amelia Cheatham, Claire Felter, Lindsay Maizland and Sabine Baumgartner Welcome to this afternoon’s discussion. But I—you know, drawing on the Brazilian case, there are essentially three to four big media outlets, and much of the local media draws on their reporting and on their stories and on their investigative work. And it’s only two or—two people down the set of successions that you get to somebody who is not involved in a corruption—any kind of corruption scandal. And in any case, any decision there could be appealed to the supreme court. Well, let’s try him. What Can Biden Do? But on the corruption point as well, I mean, I think—you know, listening to you speak, Matt—you know, just preparing for this today, I just checked out a number of the newspapers. And I don’t remember the percentage of glacial disappearing, but it’s something like it’s—something very dramatic, like it’s 7 percent of what it used to be. When you use the phrase a “test for the OAS,” do you really mean that, like Manuel Noriega’s government, the question is will someone remove this government, because otherwise the internal process of removal is complete civil war? What are possible scenarios going forward for an end to the Maduro regime or an increasingly authoritarian and repressive government in Venezuela? With respect to women’s political participation, key efforts have been made to ensure that they have increasing access to decision-making entities. So we should just be realistic and honest and upfront about that possibility. If you look at Peru, we haven’t talked about, Chile looks like it’s going that way. Obviously seeking support for the implementation of the peace agreement, at the same time that the traditional issue that has shaped U.S.-Colombian relations, which is drugs, is, you know, front and center with this massive increase in coca cultivation. Is there anything more to say about how things are shaping up in Chile, and why the government has landed in the position that it has? This would not be—one possibility is that there’s a coup, that the military comes in and actually takes over. But again, here, this is a congress two-thirds of whom are, you know, pretty involved in—have been implicated in corruption scandals. And in Ecuador, protests grew so chaotic that the administration high-tailed it out of the capital city. HOCK: Yeah, I mean, I think the short answer to that is it’s very hard to govern a country effectively and keep the communists in a coalition. And we’ve had the PRI that came back. All the change that they thought they will do is filing. ‘What People Want Are Results’: Frida Ghitis on South America’s Pragmatic Turn, How Biden Would Change U.S. Policy in Latin America, Why a Tiny Guerrilla Group Has Paraguay’s Government on the Ropes, In Colombia, Police Brutality Fuels Deadly Unrest as Protesters Demand Reform, Bolivia’s Political Paralysis Is Imperiling Its Response to COVID-19. But I would say, you know, throughout the hemisphere, there is a strong dedication to environmental issues. And so, you know, all in all, you know, mildly optimistic going forward. And this was a joint settlement between Brazil and Switzerland and the United States. The absence at the same time illustrates and reinforces South America’s marginalized status in the world of high politics. Vizcarra’s Ouster Puts Constitutional Reform on the Agenda in Peru. They become angry because they feel they have lost status at the expenses of others. 1:35 AM ET Tue, 8 Dec 2020. And there may be enough disaffections and enough fractures within the armed forces. ARNSON: Right. I know that there’s a lot happening in terms of humanitarian aid, just the—just the tragedy of the humanitarian crisis is real. Politics. Or do you have to do what you were talking about before, political reform, which, at the end of the day—I mean, it is an opportunity, a justification—I’m not saying it’ll happen; it’s too hard of a nut to crack—but it is an opportunity to at least, I think, start talking about political reform in Brazil. You mentioned the impact of the corruption issue. And I think that the United States is now building on what happened under the Obama administration, Trump administration is applying individual sanctions at higher levels, including the Vice President El Aissami in February, and more recently to the eight members of the court that basically decided to dissolve the National Assembly. Could—taking the point about Lula—could Lula come back? 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